American consumers have more money this year than ever to spend on holiday shopping meaning certain retail stocks will get a big boost in Q4 earnings. Since the recession the likes of Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) were the main benefactors of Black Friday mania, but this year this underrated group of stocks will take over.
Shoppers hit the stores in droves last Friday for the biggest shopping day of the year, Black Friday. But unlike 2013 and many years prior, shoppers actually had a few extra billion dollars in their pockets and appeared more confident than ever.
The details don’t need to be rehashed: You already know that unemployment is at multi-year lows, personal income has been steadily rising, consumer sentiment is at the highest levels in seven years. And now with oil below $70 a barrel and at the lowest level in four years, shoppers are finally ready to loosen the purse strings.
But think about this: Assuming everyone knows that this holiday season could be big, haven’t investors already been buying up retailers in anticipation?
The market has already singled out Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT), with both stocks hitting all-time highs during trading on Black Friday. Investors are front-running the entire trade. The SPDR S&P 500 Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) is up 8.5% over for last month, while the S&P 500 is up just 5.7%.
I’m not buying into the retail hype and think investors should look beyond that Black Friday trade. One place to look is the luxury brands.
The middle income shoppers have traded down to the likes of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) over the years, but with the economic recovery barreling ahead, it is time to trade back up. Truth be told, regardless of the amount of money in your bank account, we all like the idea of a deal. That’s precisely why Neiman Marcus, which sells Gucci, Fendi and Tom Ford handbags for upwards of $5,000 apiece, opened its doors early on Black Friday.
