From the long-term view, Silver had been in a bear trend since making major top in April 2011. However, since making a major bottom in December 2015 and staging the biggest monthly rally (in number of months) to top in July 2016, it has given back about 70% of those gains (was about 88% last week). So it has pushed back some the past couple of weeks.
So it should be clear sailing for Silver from here, right?
Well, not according to Dynamic Cycle Analysis (DCA) that looks at the historic cyclic flow of the market and projects forward, as well as other indications.
According to DCA along with FDates (Geometric), the outlook for Silver “short-term” is a likely brunt of this current rally as early as the start of next week (Monday/Tuesday). Next week is referred to as we7/28 (week-ending 7/28) and cyclically appears poised to hit resistance. Allowing for a deviation of one price bar (in this case one ‘weekly’ price bar due to the weekly time-frame analyzed), a weekly swing top is expected no later than we8/4, although the outlook for we7/28 appears really strong (and would be on time).
So where from there? Continuing based on DCA, a weekly swing top (aka reversal) within the projected time frame mentioned above would likely see Silver decline overall through late August, within one weekly bar of we8/25.
Now that we’ve covered the short-term weekly expectation, what might we see likely on the daily time-frame?
The short-term daily outlook is for daily prices to top out at resistance on Monday 7/24 (Tuesday at the latest). For September Silver futures, which is already in daily overbought territory that ranges between 1640 to 1660, there is noted resistance at the 1655 price point based on time/price squaring calculated from the major daily bottom of 7/10 low.
With a daily swing top forming within a trading day of 7/24, the short-term daily downside target is anticipated to be initially 8/1.
