Prompt month natural gas prices had their smallest trading range today since September 22nd, as through the settle the November contract traded within just a 4.4 cent range. Prices still sit between the 30-DMA at $2.96 and overhead resistance around $3.02.
Again today we saw the least selling near the front of the strip, where medium-term cold is getting priced in, with more weakness later in the winter strip.
Not only was prompt month natural gas not that exciting today, but cash prices were equally dull, only ticking down a couple cents on the day.
In our Afternoon Update, which we just published, we broke down why we saw the market as so disinterested in recent medium-term cold forecasts, and where we would expect it to go. In every report we conglomerate the Climate Prediction Center forecasts as a baseline long-range forecast, and one interesting note today was that the CPC seemed to ignore some of their own analog data. As seen below, their 8-14 Day analog shows significant warm risk across the Southeast, but their forecast does not reflect that.
Model guidance is relatively split, with American guidance generally colder in the long-range than European guidance, which shows less bullish risk for the natural gas market (though the latest run increased heating demand expectations slightly). Yet it is also clear that long-range models are struggling to lock in the pattern for November. The CFSv2 American climate model has been shifting its forecast for November on almost a daily basis.
The long-range forecast remains quite uncertain, and though it does contain a significant amount of bullish risk, it is apparently not yet enough to break the natural gas market out. The market seems to need more confidence in the medium and long-range forecasts before it makes its next move.
