Sequential breakaway moves by the S&P 500 must be respected, while they are also (on-top of high valuation levels) a blow-off completion move capable of occurring. With the market advancing above the ‘pivot’ level we’d outlined there’s no disappointment, there’s just a sober view of what this is, and what this is not.
What this is clearly, is a higher high for the NASDAQ, and a comparable or catch-up kind of move by the S&P and the Dow Industrial Average. Now this becomes technically overbought once again, even as it can move higher ‘if’ things continue to fall inline. That was the near-term point last week. And it’s getting both optimistic and worrisome attention from various viewpoints.
What this is not, is some sort of ‘all-clear’ to invest in the market. Over time it is reasonable to expect better times or (ideally) some of the promise voted for to actually become implemented and reflected in corporate profits as well as better household income levels. So far that’s mostly in ‘guidance’ raised by a few companies, not reflected in personal financial improvements other than in financial assets (and overpriced housing) of course.
And the latter relates to the almost-surprising continued increases in median house prices (while trumpeted on highest-ends in the most extended market enclaves like South Florida, New York City or upscale parts of Los Angeles); while ‘Consumer Confidence’ (via the Conference Board) just turned south, from high levels, so it may be tentative. What we need is follow-through in fundamentals. And you do have ‘some’ of that ongoing or pending. As to all the publicity about uber-expensive Beverly Hills and Bel Air homes; that’s a form of entertainment that has nothing to do with family buying capabilities and everything to do with buyers coming from New York to California, or of course those who are truly rich or made fortunes in corporate activities.
