Sometimes I like to trot these lumbering monthlies out so we can quiet everything down and see where various markets are slowly heading.
First of all, as I go down with my ‘strengthening US dollar’ ship*, I also mal-projected copper’s upside. I’d felt that $3/lb. would cap Doctor Copper because it is very clear lateral resistance at a handy 38% Fib retrace.**
* Well, insofar as I own UUP and EUO, it has not been fruitful; but that is the whole point because the positions are just a partial hedge against what has been a very successful long deployment in items rising against the declining USD. Still not thinking of dropping long-USD positioning, and I remember how long it took to see my bullish Treasury bond view get proven out against the herds earlier this year.
** Insert here the usual stuff about targets and resistance points being objectives, not stop signs.
Crude Oil sported a bullish looking pattern last year but has faded this year. The pattern is still viable. I am not currently an oil bull, but if at any time you see WTIC go above 55, plan on 75.
Silver is attempting to break the 2016-2017 downtrend line but is at a long-term resistance zone (see Doctor Copper above). Our short-term target – based on a daily chart pattern – is up to 18.50, but that does not break resistance. I am constructive on silver beyond any near-term reactions.
Another view of gold’s monthly situation, with more detail provided in yesterday’s post… Gold’s Vulnerability Remains. I am bullish, but the noted resistance will be tough to deal with and if peace breaks out, all the casino patrons buying because of the lunatic in North Korea will be cleaned out.
The S&P 500 and HUI show at risk and developing bullish, respectively. The risks to the stock market* were defined in this post on August 11: Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold. As for the HUI Gold Bugs index, let’s just say that it has long-since fulfilled its downside objectives and is working on a pivot to big picture bullish.
