This week our Safety and Security investing theme, unfortunately, reigned supreme. Just days after the worst storm in modern U.S. history took nearly one quarter of U.S. refining capacity offline and dropped a biblical amount of rain on Texas, here comes Hurricane Irma, the most powerful Atlantic Ocean hurricane in recorded history after having done major damage in the Caribbean. Right behind her is Hurricane Jose, currently a Category 3.
Apparently not to be outdone, Mexico was struck by its strongest earthquake in a century, measuring 8.2 magnitude, just before midnight on Thursday local time, which resulted in a Pacific tsunami warning issued immediately after. Then there is Hurricane Katia, which could hit the eastern coast of Mexico in a few days.
There is something distinctly unnerving seeing equity markets relatively calm when mother nature is tossing a whopping 4 apocalyptic-like disasters our way. But then if the South Korean Kospi doesn’t care about North Korea rattling its nuclear sword, then we suppose the S&P 500 might not be terribly fussed about nature tossing a little Armageddon our way.
These horrific natural disasters are also reflected in our Scarce Resources investing theme as the price of frozen concentrated orange juice, lumber, Brent crude, heating oil, nickel and aluminum rise. We’ve also seen shares of Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) both gain over 5% since the start of the month. Given the magnitude of these storms and subsequent destruction, we expect the fallout to dominate headlines over the coming days. We also recognize companies ranging from Disney (DIS) to Kroger (KR) will see disruptions that will weigh on expectations for the current quarter as well as the speed of the economy.
As investors, however, we continue to see signs of a stock market that is poised for greater volatility than we’ve seen over the last few months. Yes, we recognize that September tends to be that way, but it’s looking like this September will be more volatile than some. We say this given: