The good news is:
In spite of a down week for the indices, the breadth indicators held up well last week.
The Negatives
There is not much to complain about.
The Nasdaq composite (OTC) was the worst performer among the major indices, down 1.16% last week while the S&P 500 (SPX) was the best performer, down 0.61%.
New lows picked up a little, but remained at non-threatening levels while new highs increased nicely.
Not bad for a down week.
The Positives
New highs increased during a down week while new lows remained insignificant.
The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
New highs picked up last week while the index fell.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NH, in green, has been calculated from NYSE data.
NY NH also rose during a down week for the index.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.
OTC HL Ratio fell a little finishing the week at a comfortable 75%.
The next chart is similar to the one above one except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL Ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY HL Ratio matched OTC HL Ratio falling from 79% to 75%.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 3rd Friday of September during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2016 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2016. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored.
Average returns have been modestly positive by all measures.
