Forex Weekly Outlook October 9-13


The US economy lost 33,000 jobs in September due to the Hurricanes. While, this is lower than the 80,000 increase expected by most experts, unemployment rate improved to 4.2 percent, better than the 4.4 percent recorded in August. Meaning the labor market is still creating enough jobs to absorb market slack.

Also, sluggish wage growth picked up in September, rising to 2.9 percent year on year and 0.5 percent on a monthly basis. Indicating price pressure is gradually building up as projected by the Fed. Therefore, the odds of the Fed raising rate one more time this year should rise in days to come and dollar’s attractiveness surged.

This is because despite the fact that the labor market lost 33,000 jobs in September, services sector expanded at the fastest pace in 12 years and manufacturing sector grew at the fastest rate in 13 years with new orders jumping to 60.3 points, a 7-month high. Again, this shows the weak U.S. dollar has been fueling demands and the reason U.S. trade deficit improved to an 11-Month low.

Therefore, construction of the affected regions would further bolster job creation and economic outlook in the final quarter of the year.

In the UK, uncertainty plunged the pound to 3-week low after a group of Tory members opposed Prime Minister Theresa May continuity. This coupled with weak manufacturing and construction numbers hurt the pound attractiveness as investors doubted Theresa May’s ability to bring the party together at a very crucial moment of Brexit negotiation.

Also, while services sector grew unexpectedly amid rising uncertainties, weak construction growth, low manufacturing number, and low new business investment would impact growth going forward as it would cast doubt on the possibility of the Bank of England to raise borrowing cost when wages and jobs are expected to drop amid weak economic fundamentals.

In the Euro-area, strong economic growth continues to support the Euro single currency but uncertainties surrounding Spain-Catalonia relationship and Germany politics continued to impact the region outlook. However, the economic numbers remained strong with the services sector growing at a steady pace in September while manufacturing jumped to almost 7-month high. Meaning improved global economic outlook continues to support growth as witnessed in the German factory orders in August. When orders jumped to 3.6 percent from a revised 0.4 percent decline in July.

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