Having predicted back in July that the “most dangerous moment for markets will come in 3 or 4 months”, i.e., now, BofA’s Michael Hartnett was – in retrospect – wrong (unless of course the S&P plunges in the next few days). However, having stuck to his underlying logic – which was as sound then as it is now – Hartnett has not given up on his “bad cop” forecast (not to be mistaken with the S&P target to be unveiled shortly by BofA’s equity team and which will probably be around 2,800), and in a note released overnight, the Chief Investment Strategist not only once again dares to time his market peak forecast, which he now thinks will take place in the first half of 2017, but goes so far as to predict that there will be a flash crash “a la 1987/1994/1998” in just a few months.
Contrasting his preview of 2018 with the almost concluded 2017, Hartnett sets the sour tone early one, and says that he believes “2018 risk asset catalysts are much less bullish than in 2017” for the simple reason that the bearish positioning going into 2017 has been completely flipped: “positioning now long, not short; profit expectations high, not low; policy close to max stimulus; peak positioning, peak profits, peak policy stimulus means peak asset returns in 2018.” He also goes on to point out that the historical omens are poor:
Having read Hartnett for many years, we can sense an almost tangible undertone of anger and frustration at central banks for making his bearish forecasts for 2 years in a row go up in a puff of smoke. Which probably explains why one of BofA’s best strategists has decided to double down, and raise the stakes beyond a simple market crash, and to a flash crash, if only for dramatic impact.
