Barclays analyst Jay Gelb notes initial indications are Hurricane Irma’s impact on Florida could result in insured losses of up to $60B. Irma will likely be the largest storm to ever impact the U.S., although not as bad as if Miami suffered a direct hit, Gelb tells investors in a research note on the insurance space titled “Devastating Irma Impact on Insurers, But It Could Have Been Worse.”
All in, Irma and Harvey insured losses are expected to exceed $100B, Gelb points out. He believes the re-insurance stocks could suffer from near-term uncertainty regarding the extent of losses. Of the names he covers, the analyst expects Everest Re (RE), XL Group (XL), RenaissanceRe (RNR), Validus (VR) and Aspen Insurance (AHL) “to take the brunt of Irma losses.” Book value declines of more than 20% could require equity capital raises, Gelb contends. He says Chubb (CB), Travelers (TRV) and Hartford Financial (HIG) have relatively less exposure while AIG (AIG) could have greater losses among the primary insurers.
