Friday, a Bloomberg TV announcer said emerging markets are now in a Bull phase. Don’t get overly excited by that call. I know why they said that, but question the utility of their definition.
Vanguard’s emerging markets ETF (VWO), for example, closed at $34.40, up 11.2% from its multi-year closing low of $30.74; and up 22.9% from its multi-year low intra-day price. The former is not a Bull, and the latter, even if that is a reasonable way to measure, is not a Bull in the overall price history of the ETF.
It is well accepted that a 20% decline from a high is a Bear; but it is less well accepted that a 20% rise from a bottom is a Bull. However, let’s consider some hypothetical extremes first.
Let’s say a $100 stock grinds down to $10 within 12-months or less. If that stock rose to $12 (up 20%), Bloomberg would have to call that a Bull, even though it was 88% below its high.
That contrasts greatly to a $100 stock that declines to $80 (the Bear threshold) and then climbs to $96 (a 20% rise). Maybe that is a Bull.
Some other qualitative factor needs to be present, in my view, to call a Bull after a Bear.
That, to me, involves at a minimum bringing the trend line into the picture, if not the relationship of the price to the trend line.
If that $100 stock that went to $10 and stayed there for a year, and then went to $12 – now maybe that is a Bull – because by then the trend line would be in the vicinity of $10 and the rise to $12 becomes more meaningful.
So now let’s look at Vanguard’s emerging markets ETF to see if a Bull is realistic.
Here is simple monthly chart (where the last price bar is month-to-date) over many years. Visually, without any technical aids, it is hard to think of the March price action as a return to Bull status.
(click images to enlarge)
Here is 14 month chart. OK, maybe the last price bar looks like a big improvement, because it is above the trend of the closes, as you can visualize without aids.
