The Australian dollar reached new highs and seems more confident above 0.80. Where next? Is the bull trend in tact?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
AUD/USD: Allow For S/T Selling Before Resuming Of Core Bull Trend: Levels & Targets – Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse FX Technical Strategy Research notes that AUD/USD has held uptrend and price support at .7866 before breaking above the July high of .8067 and settling around there.
“We allow for fresh selling here, but favor a break above to reinstate the core bull trend for .8163/67 initially, and eventually our core target of .8453/83,”
On the downside, CS argues that a removal of support .7866 would complete a small top to target .7807 en-route to the medium-term base at .7696.
AUD: Time To Price In RBA More Aggressive?; What’s The Trade? – Nordea
Nordea FX Strategy Research argues that an observation from historical patterns suggest that we should be warming up for a tightening of the stance from RBA.
“It is not rare to see RBA move in the aftermath of a turn from the Bank of Canada. Based on data from the last 40 years, RBA moves roughly 2-3 months after BoC on average. With recent solid employment signals from Australia, it could be time for the market to price RBA more aggressively for Q1-2018.
And as long as industrial metals see trend-wise tailwinds, AUD should be underpinned. Thus far AUD/USD has been undershooting the recent pick-up in industrial metals. At the moment we consider long AUD/JPY as the perfect “no nuclear wasteland” trade.
