Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of July 2
July 2
PMI Manufacturing Index – June
54.6
54.6
54.6
ISM (Mfg) – June
58.1
58.7
58.3
Construction Spending – May
0.5%
1.8
0.6
July 3
Auto Sales* – June
17.1M
16.91
17.0
Car Sales
5.5
5.44
Truck Sales
11.6
11.48
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
Factory Orders – May
-0.2%
-0.8
-0.1
July 5
ADP Employment Report – July
185K
178
188
Initial Unemployment Claims
220K
227
223
PMI Services Index
56.5
56.5
56.5
ISM Services – June
58.0
58.6
58.3
July 6
Nonfarm Payrolls – June
190K
223
190
Private
185
218
183
Manufacturing
18
18
15
Unemployment
3.8%
3.8
3.8
Average Workweek
34.5HR
34.5
34.5
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.3
0.3
International Trade – May
-$43.3B
-46.2
-43.5
Week of July 9
July 9
Consumer Credit – May
$12.0B
9.3
July 10
July 11
Producer Producer Index – June
0.1%
0.5
Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services)
0.2
0.1
Wholesale Inventories – May
0.5%
0.5
July 12
Consumer Price Index – June
0.1%
0.2
Core CPI
0.2
0.2
Treasury Budget – June
-$102B
-146.8
July 13
Export Prices – June
0.1%
0.6
Import Prices
-0.2
0.6
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)
98.2
98.2
