The Turkish Lira tumbled from the 6th straight day, collapsing to new record lows as ‘actions’ have overtaken ‘words’ in the rhetoric battle between Erdogan and Trump over the future of a detained American pastor.
Specifically, the last few days have seen Turkey retaliate to US sanctions by freezing the assets of several US government officials, which has now been followed up by the Trump administration launching a review of Turkey’s duty-free access to U.S. markets under the Generalized System of Preferences after Ankara imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in response to American steel and aluminum tariffs.
As the following chart of the last month in the lira shows, it is clear that Washington’s pressure (whether direct or indirect) is considerably greater than any domestic-oriented actions within Turkey.
And bonds are collapsing with 10Y yields now nearing 20%…
Notably, Bloomberg reports that while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that Turkey will respond in kind to the U.S. decision to sanction two government ministers, speculation that the dispute will eventually be resolved has increased.
Erdogan said he believed that the two NATO partners will “leave behind a major chunk of differences” soon, a sign that a breakthrough in one of the worst diplomatic crises between the nations is possible.
“It’s worth noting that Erdogan has been trying to use very careful language as much as he can,” analysts at Global Securities in Istanbul, including the head of research, Sertan Kargin, wrote in a note to clients.
“It seems there is still room for a diplomatic exit, although more time and effort are needed to bridge the gap between the two countries. Should this be the case, lira assets could recover strongly and swiftly.”
However, one look at the chart above suggests that hope has faded fast.
