Crude oil prices edged lower Friday after China said it will not follow the US’ lead in cutting imports from Iran. The re-imposition of sanctions following the Trump administration’s decision to scrap an Obama-era nuclear disarmament accord begins on Monday. Meanwhile, gold prices corrected a bit higher following the prior day’s steep losses.
STRAY HEADLINES MAY SPARK OIL, GOLD VOLATILITY
Looking ahead, a quiet start to the trading week leaves commodity prices without a readily obvious scheduled catalyst. That might make for a consolidative tone, but traders ought to be wary of the markets’ likely increased sensitivity to headline risk in this environment. For example, stray soundbites from Washington or Beijing might amplify trade war concerns and trigger knee-jerk volatility.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices are digesting losses after dropping to the lowest level in 17 months. Support remains at 1197.94,the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that opening the door for a test of the 50% level at 1186.42. Alternatively, a daily close above trend line resistance – now at 1213.84 – initially targets former support at 1236.66.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices continue to stall at rising trend support established in early February. Near-term resistance is marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 70.99, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% level at 73.49. Alternatively, a drop below the outer layer of trend support – now at 66.78 – paves the way for a test of the 63.96-64.26 area.
