As the pressure comes down on global equities – particularly global Ex-US (and particularly emerging markets) – valuations have likewise come down. But the movement in valuations is so far relatively small.US PE10 valuations have clawed back much of the decline, while emerging market valuations have moved to new lows for the year, down -15% since the top now (and developed markets ex-US valuations are down -11%). This places the Emerging Markets PE10 at a 55% discount vs the USA and a 23% discount vs developed markets ex-US. I wonder though if we won’t see even cheaper valuations and a wider discount for EM equities as Fed tightening and US dollar strength start to bite. Longer term, valuations will speak for themselves, but they will speak louder if they move to a more extreme level…
As a bonus chart and an update of the “Top 10 PE10 Valuations” article, this table shows the bottom and top-ranked countries that we monitor based on PE10 valuation. The names haven’t changed that much (Turkey joins the bottom ranks though!), but the numbers have eased back since then.
