Emerging markets have taken it on the chin. Is Poland next?
Murray Gunn, Head of Global Research at Elliott Wave International, asks “Is Poland the next Turkey?”
Our outlook for the Polish Zloty suggests that Poland’s developing authoritarianism is likely to accelerate.
In case you have been living on Mars over the last few years and have missed what is going on, people around the world are becoming increasingly angry. This is especially true in the periphery of Europe, where countries like Turkey and Hungary are ruled by governments with an intolerance for people who disagree with them. After long negative trends in social mood, the so-called “populist revolution” has also resulted in the election of governments in Italy and Poland that have radical agendas. In Poland’s case, one policy of the ruling Law and Justice Party (nothing sinister about that name, eh) is to overhaul the judicial system by forcing judges to retire early. This, the European Union argues, is aimed at increasing political influence in the Polish legal system. On Monday, the EU stepped up threats of legal action against the Polish government which remains intransigent on the matter. It’s looking very probable that Poland is on the road to becoming internationally isolated.
Indeed, the chart of the Polish zloty versus the Euro suggests that Poland may be in for the same treatment as Turkey. A multi-year consolidation ended at the beginning of this year. It looks like EUR-PLN is entering a strong advance which should see the pair explode higher. Be prepared for that to be accompanied with a further breakdown in international relations with Warsaw.
The above via email. I do not have a link. The chart, as delivered, had an arrow pointing up. I edited the chart, adding a “?” and put in arrows up and down.
Polish Zloty 1999-Present
The above chart better shows the volatility of the Zloty.
