Commodity prices rose Friday as a much-anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium stuck to familiar themes, leaving the status quo rate hike outlook intact. That translated as disappointed weakness in the US Dollar, which rallied in the prior session in anticipation of an upturn in hawkish rhetoric.
Gold prices were understandably buoyed by the greenback’s pullback: the benchmark currency’s swings are typically reflected inversely in the staunchly anti-fiat yellow metal. Crude oil prices also rose, finding de-facto support because they are denominated in USD terms on global markets. Gains were halved as CFTC data showed large speculators cut net-long WTI futures bets to the lowest in 10 months.
OPEC+ TECHNICAL COMMITTEE MEETING EYED
Looking ahead, a meeting of the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee is in focus. Representatives of the cartel and like-minded producers will analyze compliance with the updated coordinated production cut regime since output quotas were increased in late June.
Renewed sanctions on Iran, a slowdown in Saudi exports and one-off disruptions elsewhere may have undermined the planned increase in supply. If so, crude oil prices may rise. Evidence suggesting producers were able to ramp up shipments despite assorted complications might prove punishing however.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices are challenging resistance in the 1204.59-08.72 area (August 3 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) having bounced after finding support below the $1200/oz figure. A daily close above this barrier exposes the 1235.24-41.64 region (former support, 38.2% level). Near-term support is at 1183.28, the August 24 low, with a break below that eyeing the August 16 bottom at 1160.37 next.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices are testing resistance marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 68.49. A daily close above that targets the 38.2% level at 70.99. Alternatively, a break below the outer layer of rising trend support – now at 64.78 – exposes April 6 low at 61.84.
