There is a tide in the affairs of men…
Thus, begins one of the most famous quotes ever uttered, taken from Shakespeare’s play, Julius Caesar. Brutus, talking to Cassius, says, “There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune…”
A flood tide takes place at the very crest in the water’s height. Once the “tide turns,” there is no stopping its ebb until, much later, it reaches an extended, even a minus low.
If you’re ashore in parts of Alaska, where a tide can run 20 feet, not embarking “at the flood” and waiting until it’s made an obvious turn can have important implications, leaving you and your craft high and dry.
The same applies in many areas in life, not least financial.
Shakespeare’s quote serves as a metaphor – a touchstone for deciding when, how, and even if to act on some particular circumstance in our lives.
It’s difficult, because though we may be certain we see a transformative event (or a series) in the process of taking place, there’s no way to know ahead of time how long or to what degree it may take.
In the case of the tightly-stretched “variance from the mean” in the market’s current opinion of where the precious metals are headed over the near to intermediate term, divining the outcome correctly in a timely manner could have decisive bottom-line consequences for those who decide to act… and for those who do not.
Even more important than trying to “score a quick profit,” if prices are making a major sustainable upside turn, those who have not established at least a core holding are likely to find themselves watching, waiting, and ultimately not participating at all as today’s levels recede in the rear-view mirror.
By the same token, waiting to buy until “it’s obvious” will lead to frustration if prices then move back into the large sideways action we’ve witnessed several times over the last few years.
