Updates to the ISM Manufacturing survey may curb the recent selloff in EUR/USD as the index is expected to narrow to 57.6 from 58.1 in July.
Another downtick in business sentiment may drag on the U.S. dollar as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation, and a dismal development may cast doubts for four rate-hikes in 2018 as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) shows little to no interest in extending the hiking-cycle.
In turn, the FOMC may deliver a dovish rate-hike at the next interest rate decision on September 26, and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may continue to project a neutral Fed Funds rate of 2.75% to 3.00% as officials see a limited risk for above-target inflation.
However, an above-forecast ISM print may trigger a bullish reaction in the dollar as it puts pressure on the Fed to adopt a more aggressive approach in normalizing monetary policy.
IMPACT THAT THE ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEY HAS HAD ON EUR/USD DURING THE LAST PRINT
Period
Data Released
Estimate
Actual
Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
JUL
2018
08/01/2018 14:00:00 GMT
59.4
58.1
-3
-19
July 2018 ISM Manufacturing
EUR/USD 5-Minute Chart
The ISM Manufacturing survey narrowed more-than-expected in July, with the index slipping to 58.1 from 60.2 the month prior. A deeper look at the report showed the gauge for Prices Paid also falling to 73.2 from 76.8 in June, while the Employment component advanced to 56.0 from 56.5 during the same period.
The market reaction to the mixed data prints was short-lived, with EUR/USD largely consolidating throughout the day to close at 1.1659.
EUR/USD DAILY CHART
