The ritual of Payroll Friday is not strictly a sorry American phenomenon. It is one shared by our neighbors to the north. The Canadian version, thanks to M. Simmons filling in the gaps of my limited experience with it, doesn’t typically sink into the depths of silliness to which its US cousin explores. At least not in as many months. This one, for August 2018, seems an exception.
The main idea is simple enough – globally synchronized growth. In 2017, the argument was about the size of the positive numbers and whether having all major economies on the same side of the divide was meaningful. This year, especially heading into the back half of 2018, is turning out different. As in not so synchronized.
The data released Friday by Statistics Canada in Ottawa reversed strong employment gains made earlier this summer, including sharp increases in Ontario. But the overall picture is one of a labour market gearing down markedly from last year and an economy not at risk of overheating. That reinforces expectations the Bank of Canada will take a cautious approach to increasing borrowing costs.
Total payrolls fell rather sharply last month, according to today’s figures from StatCan. It’s not the first time this year, as job growth reversed even more intensely back in January. It was, however, the third month out of the last five to be shedding jobs. One month you can tolerate as noise. Half of the eight months so far posted?
One wonders why it took this particular report to make such a difference in terms of the “boom”. Below is the very same media outlet, Canada’s Financial Post, reporting on what was widely perceived as being the country’s economic situation. This earlier article reckoned the biggest risk facing Canada wasn’t trade wars or currency but overheating. It was an uncontroversial perspective.
The evidence of tightening is everywhere: the unemployment rate is sitting at four-decade lows; pay raises are picking up; and companies are reporting increasing number of job vacancies. Job listings show businesses giving thousands of dollars in signing bonuses to hairstylists and mechanics.
