With less than three weeks to go until the end of the quarter, the profit warnings are starting to emerge, and today none other than JPMorgan warned that its Q3 trading revenue would be down compared to 2017.
Speaking at a New York conference, CFO Marianne Lake said that “our markets revenues will be down year-on-year, about mid-single digits”. That was the bad news; the good news is that the bank’s other businesses are doing better: net interest income, loan growth, and fees from investment banking are all expected to be better than the company previously expected, Lake said quoted by Bloomberg.
Specifically, net interest income will be around $55.5 billion for 2018, while investment-banking fees will be “strong” and core loans will increase at the high end of a 6% to 7% range, she said. Furthermore, JPMorgan’s book of what it considers core loans expanded 7% in the second quarter, surprising some analysts who had forecast subpar results in that business.
The better than expected (non-trade) results will cost JPM, however: Lake said that total expenses will rise by half a billion to $63.5 billion from the $63 billion previously forecast.
Meanwhile, at the same conference, Bloomberg reported that Citigroup also raised its forecasts for profitability and expense reductions. Citigroup’s outgoing CFO John Gerspach said part of the improved outlook comes from U.S. tax reforms and “additional benefits of investments”.
And while the banking appears to be doing well in the current quarter, still largely the result of the ongoing sugar high in the economy, the weakness in trading will likely be more bad news for Goldman which is currently on the verge of extending its record losing streak to 12 days.
