The surge in US economic output in the second quarter is expected to moderate in Q3, based on a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The median estimate continues to anticipate a healthy 3.2% increase for Q3, slightly below the median projection in late-August.
Assuming that the economy has entered an extended run of substantially stronger economic activity remains open for debate, at least by the standard in Q2 – output grew 4.2% in the previous quarter, a four-year high. By some accounts, the Q2 is set to mark a peak for economic activity for the foreseeable future.
“Downside risks are likely to remain a key focus over the months ahead,” advises Robert McAdie, global head of strategy research for BNP Paribas. “Global economic growth looks more challenging for 2019 than 2018,” he predicts via Forbes, pointing to “fading tailwinds” and the China-U.S. trade war.
Perhaps, but the latest numbers still lay a foundation for projecting a healthy rate of expansion in US economic activity in the government’s Q3 GDP report that’s scheduled for release late next month.
Economists are certainly upbeat. Yesterday’s release of The Wall Street Journal’s economic survey data for September calls for a 3.2% gain in the July-through-September period, based on the average forecast.
The Journal’s estimate matches the median projection per the Q3 numbers in the graph below. As such, a 3.2% gain is a reasonable working assumption until or if the incoming data offer a reason to adjust expectations.
Meantime, there’s still a compelling case for assuming that the nine-year-old expansion is on solid ground to roll on. Last week’s report on employment for August certainly supported a positive outlook. Private payrolls increased at a healthy 1.9% annual pace last month – the sixth straight month at that rate.
