This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 16 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results:
Let’s take a look at the relevant data of currency price changes and interest rates to date, which we compiled using a trade-weighted index of the major global currencies:
Monthly Forecast September 2018
For the month of September, we forecast that the best trade would be short AUD/USD. The performance to date is as follows:
Currency Pair
Forecast Direction
Interest Rate Differential
Performance to Date
AUD/USD
Short ↓
0.50% (2.00% – 1.50%)
+0.53%
Weekly Forecast September 16
Last week, we made no forecasts, as there were no strong counter-trend movements. This week, we again make no forecast, as there were again no strong counter-trend movements.
Only 37% of the important currency pairs or crosses moved by more than 1% value over the past week. This volatility is relatively low, and we expect it to be unchanged next week.
This week has been dominated by relative strength in the Canadian Dollar, and relative weakness in the Japanese Yen.
Previous Monthly Forecasts
You can view the results of our previous monthly forecasts here.
Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs
We teach that trades should be entered and exited at or very close to key support and resistance levels. There are certain key support and resistance levels that should be watched on the more popular currency pairs this week, which might result in either reversals or breakouts:
