The SPX followed the script we offered last week to the T. It sold off early in the week to support at the January high, rallied, reached the upside target on Thursday and printed a weekly close just below that target.
By the way, setting up alerts at target levels is a convenient way to keep track of price action without being glued to the screen, and helps book quick profits:
While discussing swing action in the SPX, we noted that the current upswing must exceed 6 days to ensure that the bullish wave, which started in January, remains in place. This proved to be the case and, as the chart below shows, the index remains in a green/bullish wave. This bullish action was supported by the DJIA, which also made a new all time high.
The projected trading range for next week for SPX is 2900-2960. Friday’s close was in the middle of that range, meaning that the risk profile for next week is neutral. While the long-term trend is up, the current upswing has exceeded the average duration and is overdue for a reversal. The next SPX CIT date is September 24.
Oil hit our upside target on Thursday and pulled back. It remains stuck in a $64 – $74 trading range.
The projected trading range for oil for next week is 68 – 72.7
Monthly pivots: P – 69.9, S1 – 67.5, S2 – 63.3, R1 – 72.3, R2 – 74
Gold was on track to reach our upside target but a sharp sell-off on Thursday pulled it back towards the monthly pivot in the middle of that trading range which, once again, remains unchanged for next week.
Monthly pivots: P – 1205, S1 – 1180, S2 – 1160, R1 – 1230, R2 – 1250
The projected trading range for gold for next week is 1190 – 1220.
All G6 pairs hit our targets.
USDCHF hit our downside target twice and finished the week just below it. The search for a bottom continues, and the next lower Fibonacci retracement level is at 0.9524.
USDJPY broke above our upside target several times and finished the week slightly higher.
