The good news is:
Beginning last Thursday new lows all but disappeared and the secondaries outperformed the blue chips.
The Negatives
The negatives disappeared at the end of last week.
The Positives
The breadth indicators turned upward beginning last Thursday and continued to move upward on Friday in spite of a down day for the blue chip indices.
The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue. NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so increasing new lows move the indicator downward (up is good). Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
NY NL turned upward at the end of last week and was up on Friday in spite of the index moving downward.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NL, in dark red, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.
OTC NL also turned sharply upward.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.
This one is ambiguous because it did not turn upward. However, the value at 132 is relatively high and there were 113 new highs on Friday (a down day for the index) up from 84 on Wednesday. New highs increasing when the index is down, is good.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NH, in green, has been calculated using NASDAQ data.
OTC NH turned modestly upward. The OTC is likely to hit a new all time high next week that will not be confirmed by OTC NH. However, as long as OTC NH is moving upward the market should be ok.
Summation Indices (SI) are running totals of oscillator values. The charts below show SI’s calculated from advance-decline (AD), new high – new low (HL) and upside-downside volume (UD) oscillators.
The signals from SI’s are often ambiguous; however, when they are all heading in the same direction, they deserve attention.
The chart below covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and SI’s calculated with NYSE data.
