First, a review of last week’s events:
EUR/USD
Recall that most experts (55%) had voted for the further growth of the pair and its transition to the zone 1.1745-1.1845. This forecast turned out to be 100% true, and the pair fixed the weekly high at 1.1802 on Friday morning, having risen by 180 points in five days.
The main reason for the dollar to weaken was the hope that China and the United States could avoid a full-scale trade war. The devastating victory of the Americans became less obvious, and investors turned their attention to more risky assets and started to get rid of the dollar mass.
Another reason for the US currency fall was the delay in the deal between Canada and the US on the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). As for the upcoming interest rate raise on September 25-26, the market has already played out this scenario a long time ago. As a result, the dollar index fell to a two-month low. However, at the very end of Friday, the “buck” managed to win back a part of the losses, and the pair completed the week-long marathon at 1.1750;
GBP/USD
60% of experts, supported by the overwhelming majority of oscillators, trend indicators, as well as graphical analysis on H4, felt that the pair would continue its growth to the area of 1.3210-1.3315. That was how it all happened: the week high was seen on Thursday at 1.3296. In addition to the factors listed above, the pound growth was facilitated by positive retail sales statistics in the UK and some progress on the issue of the Irish border at the Brexit talks.
However, the pound’s victory over the dollar turned out to be short-lived, and it was on Friday, that, having broken through the support of the two-week rising channel, the pair collapsed by more than 200 points, returning to the mark of the beginning of the week at 1.3075. The reason is still the same: the uncertainty for Brexit.
USD/JPY
While the dollar was weakening against the euro and the pound, it continued to strengthen against the yen. Interest in risk-free assets this week was falling rapidly, and, in addition to the American currency, the Japanese currency was on this list as well. And the yen, having a negative interest rate of -0.1%, topped this rating of unattractiveness for investors, ahead of the dollar. As a result, the yen lost about 50 points to the dollar, and the pair ended the week at 112.60.
