Oil price rallied with global benchmark Brent breaching $82 per barrel, the highest since November 2014. The increase came after Saudi Arabia and Russia refused to increase production to offset falling Iranian oil exports in a meeting in Algiers on Sep 23.
The United States is expected to re-impose sanctions on Iran starting Nov 4. Since Iran is OPEC’s third-largest oil producer and exports about 2.5 million barrels a day, renewed sanctions will reduce Iranian oil exports, further tightening global supplies and pushing oil prices higher. An analyst at J.P. Morgan (JPM) expects that the sanctions will cut Iran’s oil exports by 1.5 million barrels per day while RBC Capital Markets expects losses related to Iranian oil to exceed 1.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2019.
Additionally, falling oil production in Venezuela is supporting higher oil price. This is especially true as Venezuela’s worsening economic crisis has forced the country to curtail its output to far below 2 million barrels per day, which has been halved since 2005.
Further, hedge funds and other money managers raised their bullish bets on Brent in three consecutive weeks, extending their net long position in Brent by 23 million barrels to 440 million barrels, up to Sep 11, according to the data compiled by Reuters. Notably, Brent crude is on track for its fifth consecutive quarterly increase — the longest such stretch for the global benchmark since early 2007.
Given bullish fundamentals, JP Morgan raised its Brent crude forecast to $85 per barrel over the next six months from the previous forecast in the low $60. The price can also spike to $90 in the wake of reduced Iranian oil exports.
However, escalating US-China trade war fears, ongoing emerging market crisis and weakening currencies in major Asian oil importers like India will dent global demand in the coming months, thereby capping the oil price rise.
Further, the return of Libya’s supply in August that has led to highest OPEC production this year added to woes. Libya’s production, which was under pressure from attacks and shutdown of oil facilities, climbed to the highest level since 2013 in August. The output is expected to rise even further if security at the nation’s energy facilities can be improved, according to the chairman of the state-run National Oil Corporation.
