Commodities’ weak performance continued in the third quarter, marking the longest losing streak in more than three years. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, which measures returns on 22 raw materials, declined 2.5%. This was largely due to a strong dollar, trade frictions and concerns over the Chinese demand outlook. Additionally, weakening economic growth in many parts of the world dampened the appeal for commodities.
Notably, a high dollar made dollar-denominated assets expensive for foreign investors, potentially diminishing demand for commodities. Per data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, investors pulled $2.57 billion from long-only ETFs linked to broad baskets of raw materials in the third quarter, including about $140 million in September. Total assets across all commodity ETFs have slid $23 billion since April.
Metals and soft commodities were the major losers. In particular, gold, often viewed as a safe haven, registered the longest monthly losing streak in September since January 1997, dragged down by rising U.S. interest rates. Also, copper slid into bear markets, recording three straight quarters of losses — the longest since 2015.
The soft commodities sector dropped 11.51% in the third quarter, making it the worst-performing sector. Notably, sugar price slipped to the lowest level in a decade and the price of coffee was also at the lowest since 2005. Other double-digit losers include lead, nickel, zinc, rice, ethanol, cocoa, cotton, and lumber.
However, energy and palladium were the bright spots. Brent jumped to its highest level in nearly four years on the potential U.S. sanctions against Iran expected to kick-off in November. With the rising oil prices, gas prices at the pump also rose to the highest in four years. On the other hand, pallidum prices were on the rise buoyed by solid demand for the automotive industry, mainly catalytic converters for vehicles. A jump in new-car registrations in the European Union during July and August drove palladium prices, per analysts. Additionally, China’s focus on building domestic demand as well as higher demand added to the strength.
