Retail sales were up according to US Census headline data. The unadjusted rolling averages rate of growth also improved.
Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales
Even though there is seen a significant improvement – it was a weak bounce back from the previous month’s solf reports.
Things to consider when viewing this data:
it is not inflation adjusted.
the three month rolling averages of the unadjusted data significantly slowed
still, our analysis says this months’ year-over-year growth was about average for the growth seen in the last 12 months..
The relationship between year-over-year growth in inflation adjusted retail sales and retail employment do not correlate.
Backward data revisions were upward.
Econintersect Analysis:
unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 1.1 % month-over-month, and up5.1 % year-over-year.
unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth accelerated 0.5 % month-over-month, up 4.8 % year-over-year.
unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 3.3 % year-over-year
this is an advance report. Please see caveats below showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.
in the seasonally adjusted data – the major strengths were automotive and non-store retailers.
U.S. Census Headlines:
seasonally adjusted sales down 0.6 % month-over-month, up 4.5 % year-over-year.
the market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):
| seasonally adjusted |
Consensus Range |
Consensus |
Actual |
| Retail Sales – M/M change |
0.2 % to 0.8 % |
+0.4 % |
+0.6% |
| Retail Sales less autos – M/M change |
0.0 % to 0.4 % |
+0.2 % |
+0.2 % |
| Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change |
0.3 % to 0.5 % |
+0.5 % |
+0.3 % |
| Control Group – M/M change |
0.2 % to 0.6 % |
+0.5 % |
+0.4 % |
