Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Maguire downgraded International Paper (IP) to Neutral and lowered his price target for the shares to $53 from $63. The stock closed yesterday down $2.69 to $44.64.
Following 12 new U.S. containerboard capacity announcements since his upgrade of the shares on July 12, 2017, the analyst now forecasts 11% growth in North American capacity from 2019-2022 against an estimate of 2% per year demand growth. U.S. containerboard supply growth will outpace demand growth during the 2020-2022 period, which increases the risk of pricing/earnings declines in that time period, Maguire tells investors in a research note. The analyst admits that he underestimated the speed and severity of the supply response in the industry to the acceleration in demand.
Maguire also lowered his price target for Buy-rated WestRock (WRK) to $64 from $73 and removed the shares from his firm’s Americas Conviction List. He also dropped his price target for Neutral-rated Packaging Corp. (PKG) to $108 from $119.
