Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of October 15
October 15
Retail Sales – September
0.5%
0.1
0.6
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.4
0.3
0.4
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas
0.4
0.2
0.4
NY Fed Manufacturing Index
20.0
19.0
19.3
Business Inventories – August
0.6%
0.6
0.5
October 16
Industrial Production – August
0.3%
0.4
0.2
Capacity Utilization
78.2
78.1
78.2
Manufacturing
0.3
0.2
0.2
NAHB Index
67
67
67
JOLTS – August
6.910
6.939
6.900
October 17
Housing Starts – September
1.230M
1.282
1.228
Building Permits
1.285
1.229
1.280
October 18
Initial Unemployment Claims
216K
214
215
Philadelphia Fed Survey
20.0
22.9
20.3
Leading Indicators
0.4%
0.4
0.5
October 19
Existing Home Sales – September
5.380M
5.340
5.300
Week of October 22
October 22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
0.18
0.18
October 23
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
24
29
October 24
FHFA House Price Index – August
0.3%
0.2
New Home Sales – September
630K
629
October 25
Durable Goods Sales – September
-2.5%
4.4
International Trade in Goods – September
-74.0
-75.8
Wholesale Inventories – September (a)
0.3%
1.0
Pending Home Sale Index – September
104.2
104.2
October 26
GDP – Q3 (a)
3.2%
4.2
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – October (r)
99.0
99.0
