October has historically been the most volatile month of the year for equity markets, so the fact that volatility has picked up so far this month is to be expected. What may come as a surprise to many, though, is that so far at least, this October has been less volatile than average. The chart below shows the S&P 500’s average daily move by month going back to 1928, where October’s average daily move of +/-0.90% is clearly the largest of any month. With this October nearly half over, though, the average daily move so far has actually been just +/-0.77%. If the market is even going to see ‘average’ volatility this month, things are going to have to get a lot more active!
