Khalid A. Al-Falih, the Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia and chairman of Saudi Aramco all but guaranteed an extension of oil production cuts to be officially announced at the end of the month despite the protestations by some Russian oil companies. Russian oil companies are desperate to raise production to try to get more cash from oil prices that are near 2 and a half year highs. Yet, Russian President Vladimir Putin will have none of that as he is looking at the big picture and understands the political power that comes with higher oil prices.
Talking about power, a report from the daily mail that King Salman of Saudi Arabia, or MBS, is planning to step down next week and name his son Prince Mohammed bin Salman as his successor is raising the risk factor in oil. The oil take on an MBS kingship is that the risk of a military conflict with Iran is more likely. You already have the King arresting more than 40 princes and government ministers in a corruption probe and now is allowing them to buy their freedom by giving back a sizable percentage of the wealth that they have accumulated and to put it into the Kingdom’s coffers that have been depleted because of overspending and the fall in the price of oil.
The drop in the price in oil is bothering Harold Ham, the founder and chairman of Continental Resources known as the “shale king” because he sees a real danger in the over-reporting of U.S. shale production. He says that bad forecasting is hurting the U.S. shale industry. In an interview with Bloomberg News, he said that the boom in U.S. shale-oil production requires “more sophisticated” forecasting than ever. “It just disadvantages the U.S. market,” said Hamm, the founder and chairman of Continental Resources Inc. The EIA is “a very powerful market mover, and so it’s necessary they understand these things.” He blames overly optimistic government production predictions for depressing U.S. oil prices. Yet, it is not just Harold Hamm that is upset with the overestimation of shale production, many users of oil and products feel misled and because of these over-optimistic productions and low-price forecasts felt they became underhedged.
