Thoughts
1 am: Fear & Greed Index (Sentiment Indicator) registers extreme fear.
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index (a sentiment indicator) is registering extreme fear right now.
Here’s how low this is.
This tells you that the short term risk:reward increasingly favors bulls.
1 am: New Home Sales are deteriorating. Bearish for the stock market in 2019
New Home Sales’ latest reading went down from 585k to 553k. But more importantly, New Home Sales are finally starting to trend downwards.
*New Home Sales tend to fall for 1-2 years BEFORE the equities bull market ends. New Home Sales is starting to trend downwards. This will be a bearish sign for the stock market in 2019.
1 am: Building Permits are deteriorating. Bearish for the stock market in 2019
Building Permits’ latest reading went up a little, from 1249k to 1270k. But more importantly, New Home Sales are finally starting to trend downwards.
*Building Permits tend to fall for 1-2 years BEFORE the equities bull market ends. Building Permits is starting to trend downwards. This will be a bearish sign for the stock market in 2019.
The next recession and bear market will probably be more similar to the 2000-2002 bear market than the 2007-2009 bear market. The recession will probably be shallow, but the stock market’s decline will be > 40%.
I highly recommend you read these 2 articles by Tim Duy and Bill McBride. No need to panic right now, but watch out if the weakness in housing continues in the next few months.
