The S&P 500 is poised to match the February decline (January 26th to February 9th) by points (342) and by percentage (-11.91%), also the largest pullback since the bull campaign started over 10 years ago. After Monday’s close, the S&P 500 nearly tested these metrics at 2597, inching close in the final hour of trade before pulling back up into the finish.
For practical purposes, it can be said that the two down-moves are in symmetry in terms of size, the glaring difference is the disparity between the VIX now and then. Back in February after initial thrust had been completed, volatility was nearly twice as high (50+ vs 27ish now).
Whenever moves match previous moves in size, it can suggest a trend change is near. That said, it is extremely early to call a low at this point.In fact, other indices such as the Dow (DJI) continue to highlight former support turned resistance at a clear psychological level (25K), which continue to suggest that bears remain overall in control in US equity markets.
If 2597 (S&P 500) is clearly taken-out to the downside, then look out! It would suggest a more meaningful decline is at hand and could suggest that the VIX elevates to the upper 30’s before potentially exposing the critical 50 threshold that has exhausted previous junctures of paranoia.
