Coming into the trading week, Finom Group (for whom I am employed) outlined for subscribers its belief that a market bottom hadn’t been found as of yet and volatility would likely head higher before its inevitable decline.
Monday investors found a deeply troubled equity market environment whereby the Dow was up more than 300 points at one point before turning negative by more than 500 points and finishing down some 245 points on the day. The Nasdaq (NDX) again was the worst performer of the session, with Amazon (AMZN) continuing its steep decline in share price and since it reported a miss on the top line in its Q3 2018 period. The S&P 500 (SPX) was the best of the worst performing indices on Monday, falling still by .66% or 17 points.
The equity market U-turn seemed to coincide with a Bloomberg report that the U.S. is planning on slapping tariffs on more Chinese products if upcoming talks between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping falter. Both countries have already implemented levies on billions of dollars worth of each other’s goods.
With these headlines on tariffs, President Trump also held an on-air interview for Fox News yesterday. The interview touched on a wide breadth of topics, but toward the end, President Trump discussed the trade war with China. He openly stated that he was optimistic a trade deal would get done between the 2 nations.
Wall Street analysts are mixed on what will become of the current market correction. Morgan Stanley continues to beat its bear market drum and heralded its thesis with new commentary on Monday.
“The rolling bear market continues to make progress and there is growing evidence that it is morphing into a proper cyclical bear market in the context of a secular bull,” wrote Michael Wilson, the bank’s chief equity strategist. “We think the evidence is building and the message from Mr. Market is clear: the consensus outlook for earnings growth is too rosy next year.
“The markets seem to agree and have been quietly revolting all year. We don’t think the revolts will stop until central banks pause or at least signal they are concerned. With the Fed having to respond to still strong economic data and the desire to remain apolitical, we think it could take another 200 S&P points making 2450 a reasonable downside target to consider.”
In contrast to Morgan Stanley’s bear market thesis, Goldman Sachs also had its own take on the market environment and offered its outlook on Monday as well.
“The stock market sell-off over the past month has gotten “overdone” and will be offset in part as companies return to buying back their own shares, according to a Goldman Sachs U.S. chief market strategist David Kostin. His analysis sees the market gaining close to 6 percent over the next two months.
“The recent sell-off has priced too sharp of a near-term growth slowdown. We expect continued economic and earnings growth will support a rebound in the S&P 500.
