Analysts Question The Case For Another Hike In Interest Rates


The Federal Reserve remains on track to raise interest rates again in December, according to the futures markets. But the wisdom for another round of policy tightening is drawing more criticism in the wake of a surge in stock market volatility and signs that economic growth has slowed in the US, China and Europe.

Richard Bove, chief strategist at Rafferty Holdings, for example, worries that ongoing rate hikes at this point in the business cycle threaten to push the US into a new recession. By his calculation, broad money supply growth is advancing at well below the pace needed to keep GDP rising at a healthy rate.

The senior fixed-income strategist at Rabobank also sees risk rising in the central bank’s ongoing policy plans to lift rates. “We think the Fed will ultimately push the US into recession by following this path,” said Lyn Graham-Taylor, senior fixed-income strategist at Rabobank.

Regardless of the risk, former Fed Chair Janet Yellen thinks “it’s appropriate for the Fed to be raising interest rates a bit more,” she said on Tuesday.

Martin Feldstein, professor of economics at Harvard University, recently advised that the case for tighter policy is partly linked to giving the Fed more room to cut rates to fight the blowback in the next recession. By that measure, he reasons that the central bank is still behind in normalizing policy.

If a recession begins as soon as 2020, the Fed will not be in a position to reduce the federal funds rate significantly. Indeed, the Fed now projects the federal funds rate at the end of 2020 to be less than 3.5%. In that case, monetary policy would be unable to combat an economic downturn.

Meantime, the market is currently pricing in high odds of another rate hike at the December policy meeting. Fed funds futures currently reflect an implied 73% probability that the central bank will lift its target rate by 25 basis points to a 2.25%-to-2.50% range at the final FOMC meeting for 2019, based on CME data.

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