China released PMI data overnight, and the results seem to point towards further impacts from the trade US-China trade spat. The releases had been forecasted to show declines, and the actual levels not only did that, but they also dropped more than expected. The manufacturing PMI is now sitting at 50.2—the lowest level since July. Services saw a steeper decline falling from 53.9 from 54.9, which is the lowest since August 2017. The biggest factor dragging down these numbers is new export orders. As protectionist tariffs have settled into place—this month was the first full month with the most recent round of tariffs in effect—export orders have declined. As it stands now, since 2005 there were only a few times that new export orders have been this weak: 7/08, 10/08-2/09, 12/11-1/12, 7/12-8/12, and 11/15. It will be interesting to see if this is reflected in hard data going forward given the large and growing US trade deficit with China.
