Gold’s last three weekly settles have respectively been: 1230, 1236, and now Friday at 1235. Moreover, Gold has settled in the 1230’s for eight of the last 11 trading days. “BUT“…
Come Tuesday’s stateside election results during which the late-night financial world shall be fixated upon Gold and the S&P futures wildly reacting into Wednesday’s wee hours and onward, we’ll likely be cueing up Dorothy Gale’s famous line that “Toto, we’re not in Kansas anymore.”
Let’s review, first with the S&P as it (compared to docile Gold) is where the real drama shall be. From the election night of November 8, 2016 (for which the trade date was already November 9), the S&P futures swung through a range of 138 points: that was seven times the “expected daily trading range” (EDTR) for that date of 19 points. Come the election results this Tuesday/Wednesday, should a similar swing phenomena occur and given that today’s EDTR is running at 61 points, seven times that is 427 points. Of course, that would get largely mitigated by the imposed overnight futures “lock limit” of 5% which at this writing would be a mere 136 points in either direction; (by day, it can then get to 20%, downside only, which would be some 544 points, in turn bringing the S&P within a whisker of our overall 2154 correction target, i.e. the full elimination of the present President’s rally-to-date).
Here is the same drill for Gold. Its election night swing from 2016 was a full 70 points (from 1338 on Hillary High Hopes down to 1268 on Donald Did It) which was five times the EDTR then of 15 points. Now two years hence with Gold actually lower than it was then and the current EDTR being just 13 points, should Congressional power shift left, Gold ought to shift up and get above The Box (1240-1280). Should Congressional power stay right, Gold ought shift down and fumble about in the upper 1180s. Either way, look for price to escape this recent drudgery of the 1230s, (aka “Kansas”). Here are the weekly bars, the blue dots of parabolic Long trend nonetheless accelerating their ascent, “BUT“:
