Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
What Are The Implications Of DOGE?
The Trump administration intends to treat the government like a business, removing waste and increasing productivity. Can it be done? It’s difficult to say. Firing government employees is notoriously difficult (hence the “fail up” theme that is common in the public sector).Having said that, there’s clearly room for improvement/ cost cutting. The bigger issues pertain […]
Sentiment Indicators
The University of Michigan just released its revised Consumer sentiment data for the month of November, which came in below expectations at 71.8 (street expecting 74.0). This however was a modest 1.3 points higher than last month (+1.8%) and 17.1% higher than last year.The consumer sentiment index has been below its historical average (orange line: […]
Asset Class/Key ETF Performance Since Election Day 2024
We’re just under three weeks past Election Day 2024 and below is an updated look at the performance of various asset classes since then using our key ETF matrix. While it may feel like the stock market has gone gangbusters since the close on 11/5, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up just over 3%, […]
QCEW Employment Change Y/Y To June 2024
The percentage change is less than that for the CES estimate. Does this mean there are a lot fewer people employed that indicated by the official series (e.g. here)? Here’s data from 2023M06 onward: Figure 1: Change in total covered employment in Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), not seasonally adjusted (blue), official BLS nonfarm payroll […]
Broadcom Stock Price Analysis
Image Source: Unsplash Broadcom (AVGO) is a key player in modern connectivity, producing advanced chips for routers, Wi-Fi hubs, and data center equipment.The company is also a significant contributor to AI technology, providing essential networking products like Ethernet switches that enable faster data movement, a critical component of AI infrastructure.While Nvidia often takes the spotlight for AI chips, Broadcom’s […]
October Existing Home Sales: A Pause, Or Possibly Reversal, In The Rebalancing Trend
Yesterday’s report on existing home sales indicated, at least for one month, a pause or even reversal in the previous trend of abating price increases and increased inventory. While existing home sales are not nearly so important to the economy as new home sales, to the extent that home buyers must pay more of their […]
Bird’s Eye View Of Price And Risk
This week, we learned that the US index of leading economic indicators (Conference Board LEI) contracted to 99.5 in October—the 32nd consecutive month of contraction and the longest since at least 1957 (all shown below courtesy of The Daily Shot). The only LEI items that expanded in October were stock (green) and credit (pink) prices. […]
X teases money transfer feature as part of Musk’s everything-app vision
Key Takeaways X plans to introduce a money transfer feature under its X Payments service, aligning with Musk’s vision for an ‘everything app’. X Payments LLC has acquired money transmitter licenses in most US states, positioning the platform to incorporate financial services. Share this article X is preparing to launch a money transfer feature as […]
Gold’s Public Sentiment
Image Source: Pixabay Gold’s public sentiment is generally over-bullish, but… Gold’s public sentiment (graph & data from Sentimentrader.com) registered an extreme last month as the market was supposedly anxious about war abroad and the political war here in the US. Oh, and more importantly, there is the slowly decelerating economy and the Federal Reserve, weakening from […]
Here’s What The Euro’s Collapse Means For You
Image Source: Unsplash While Bitcoin dominates today’s headlines, seasoned investors know the financial markets extend far beyond cryptocurrencies.Don’t misunderstand – I remain bullish on crypto and have been for months. However, focusing solely on crypto means missing other significant market opportunities unfolding right now.The foreign exchange market dwarfs all others in trading volume, and a major development […]
