Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
AUD/USD Daily Analysis – Friday, Sept. 28
AUD/USD broke below 0.7236 support, suggesting that the upside movement from 0.7085 had completed at 0.7314 already. Further decline could be expected in a couple of days and next target would be at 0.7150 area. Near term resistance is at 0.7250, as long as this level holds, the downtrend will continue.
EU Holds Emergency Meeting To Prepare For No-Deal Hard Brexit
After the EU rebuked Theresa May’s Chequers proposal, the chance of a hard Brexit rose sharply. The EU is now preparing. The Financial Times reports EU Prepares Five-Day Plan in Case of No-Deal Brexit. Similarly, Bloomberg says EU Envoys to Discuss Emergency Preparations. Neither article said much of anything beyond the title and subtitle. Eurointelligence had much more […]
AI And The New Health Care
The first major industry to be fundamentally disrupted by artificial intelligence will be health care, America’s last 19th century industry. Major diseases are being cured at such a dramatic pace that if you can survive the next decade chances are you can live forever. DNA is the software of life and spending $3 billion to […]
UK Financial Services – Opportunities And Threats Post-Brexit – Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain?
In a departure from the my usual format this Macro Letter is the transcript of a speech I gave earlier this week at the UK law firm Collyer Bristow; Thomas Carlisle may have dubbed Economics ‘the dismal science,’ but I remain an optimist. Setting aside the vexed question of whether Brexit will be hard, soft […]
A Bullish EIA Print Shocks Natural Gas
It was another wild day for the newly-prompt November natural gas contract, as it shot higher when the EIA announced that far less gas was injected into storage last week than many expected. The front of the strip shot higher off the report, eventually reversing on some warmer long-range forecasts in the afternoon but still […]
E Metals And Miners
I’m long-term bullish on metals and miners. However, the short-to-medium term picture supports lower prices – especially with what appears to be another failed cycle in gold. The senior mining index (GDX) resisted today’s decline in gold. I’m not sure what it means just yet…we should know by tomorrow or Monday. Significant upside follow-through would […]
Agricultural Exports Plunge, Trump Accuses China Of Meddling In US Elections
The census dept reports the trade deficit widened by 5.3% with ag exports down 9.5%. Trump was already annoyed. The Census Bureau advance report on International Trade in Goods shows the international trade deficit was $75.8 billion in August, up $3.8 billion from $72.0 billion in July. Exports of goods for August were $137.9 billion, $2.3 billion […]
Get Ready For Gold To Bounce Once More
You know by now that I think gold is above all a commodity, and in a bubble that was more extreme than stocks… a bubble that’s been bursting since September 2011, but… Gold and bitcoin are two examples of bubbles bursting that are NOT following my bubble model as well as most. Both, thus far, are basing out at higher […]
Why A 15 P/E Ratio Represents Fair Value For Most (Not All) Companies
Introduction One of my favorite Warren Buffett quotes is “investing is most intelligent when it is most businesslike”. The reason this quote resonates so much with me is because I believe it represents the essence of value investing. To me, value investing is about positioning yourself as a shareholder/owner/partner in a wonderful business that you […]
Strong Equity Inflows
Investors directed sizable investment fund flows towards equities for the week ending 9/19/2018 as reported by the Investment Company Institute (ICI) on 9/26/2018. Total equity inflows for that week equaled $10.2 billion. This completely reversed the $10.4 billion net outflows reported over the prior seven weeks that ended 9/12/2018. Bonds continue to receive inflows as well and […]
