Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Consumer Expectations: Home Prices, Spending, Household Income, Inflation
Every month, the NY Fed conducts a survey of consumer expectations. The lead chart is from the Fed, I created the others The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations shows “Consumers’ Expectations Largely Stable; while Home Price Growth Expectations Continue to Retreat”. Year-ahead inflation expectations remained steady at 3.0 percent over the month while three-year-ahead […]
What Caused The Financial Crisis?
Sad but true — the financial crisis was all about bad monetary policy, a housing bubble, and poor bank risk management There are a lot of opinions being trotted around ten years after the financial crisis. A lot of them are self-serving, to deflect blame from areas that they want to protect. What you are […]
Weighing The Week Ahead: Quit Fighting The Last War
There is a normal economic calendar featuring four different housing reports. With little interest in recent economic or earnings news, the punditry has been interested in history. For many it is another opportunity to sell fear. The pundits might not change focus, but investors should have a resolution: Quit fighting the last war. Today’s WTWA will […]
USD/JPY Forecast Sept. 17-21 – Dollar Is King, But The Yen Is Plotting A Coup
Dollar/yen advanced nicely as trade wars took a step back, US yields climbed and the Fed remained hawkish. But not everything is going in favor of the pair. USD/JPY fundamental movers The deadline came and went and the US did not impose new tariffs on China. On one hand, Trump threatened to add additional ones. On the other […]
Dollar Pullbacks Remain Shallow As Rate Differentials Widen
The trajectory of monetary policy in the US and Europe has been fairly clear. There is practically no doubt that the Fed will hike rates on September 26. Despite softer than expected PPI and CPI figures, the market has become more confident of another move in December. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet unwind reaches its maximum velocity of […]
Looking For Value & Earnings Growth? 4 Retail Gems For You
“It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” – Warren Buffett Smart investors often consider value style as one of the most effective approaches. In value investing, the focus is on stocks that are trading below their inherent worth but are fundamentally […]
Euro Forecast: After ECB Holds, Italy To Come Back Into Focus For Euro
Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral The European Central Bank continues to aim for ending its QE program in December, then raising rates by the end of “summer 2019”, citing “receding” uncertainty around its inflation outlook. Any goodwill provided by the ECB’s confidence in its policy path was quickly erased by Friday as concerns over the […]
America Seizes Oil Throne
Last week the U.S. became the world’s biggest crude oil producer. Not everyone agrees – Russian production figures still show them ahead. But the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is confident that we are, and that we’re going to stay there at least through next year. This represents a milestone in the path towards American Energy Independence. Only 10 […]
Why Everyone Ignored My Warnings Ahead Of The Financial Crisis
It’s 10 years since my forecast of a global financial crisis came true, as Lehman Brothers collapsed. I had warned of this consistently here in the blog, and in the Letters column of the Financial Times. But, of course, nobody wanted to listen whilst the party was going strong. As the FT’s world trade editor wrote at […]
Morgan Stanley: 7 Killer Tech Plays
These 7 stocks are “at the cutting edge of a data era-driven productivity boom.” Morgan Stanley has pinpointed the companies that are best positioned to hold a technological edge over the coming years. On this analysis, these stocks should make excellent long-term tech picks. This is “the kind of opportunity that only comes along once […]
