Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Goldman’s Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead, Asks “Should We Be Worried?”
One year ago, we reported that in its attempt to calculate the likelihood, and timing, of the next bear market, Goldman Sachs created a proprietary “Bear Market Risk Indicator” which at the time had shot up to 67% – a level last seen just before the 2000 and 2007 crashes – prompting Goldman to ask, rhetorically, “should […]
The Impact Of Rising Rates On Multifactor Strategies
With multifactor investing gaining traction in recent years, investors now have 440 multifactor ETFs and index mutual funds with a total of $74 billion in assets1 to choose from. The investing community has largely accepted and focused on five primary factors—size, value, quality, momentum and low volatility—which serve as the bedrock of multifactor funds to varying degrees. When WisdomTree was researching […]
ISM Manufacturing PMI – Best Since May 2004
ISM Manufacturing PMI – Markit PMI Shows Moderation The August Markit manufacturing report showed slight weakness. It was overshadowed by the remarkably strong ISM PMI report which I will review later in this article. As you can see from the chart below, the Markit PMI was 54.7 which was down from 55.3 in July. It beat […]
Higher Homeownership Rates Precrisis Predicted Larger Growth Declines
from the St Louis Fed New research shows that among advanced economies, a country’s homeownership rate prior to the financial crisis turned out to be a powerful negative predictor of both its: Postcrisis growth trajectory Subsequent change in national homeownership rate “It makes sense for these outcomes to be related, since problems in housing and […]
Facebook, Twitter Under Pressure As Executives Testify Before Congress
Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook (FB), and Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter (TWTR), are testifying today in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee, which is assessing how well social media companies are confronting foreign influence on their platforms. In her opening remarks, Sandberg reiterated that Facebook was too slow to react in 2016 when the […]
Another Month, Another Record
The S&P 500 eclipsed the 2,900 level and the Nasdaq jumped over 8,000 this month – both all-new record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial average also temporarily catapulted above 26,000 in August, but remains 2% shy of the January 2018 record highs. For the year, here are what the gains look like thus far: S&P […]
Is The Stock Market Cheap? – Wednesday, Sept. 5
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor’s latest earnings spreadsheet. TTM P/E ratio = […]
Is The Stock Market Cheap? – Wednesday, September 5
Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard & Poor’s latest earnings spreadsheet. TTM P/E ratio = […]
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes – Wednesday, Sept. 5
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to inch up in August, reaching an annualized 5.0% — fractionally higher vs. the estimate in the previous month. The projection reflects the annualized return over the estimated “risk-free” rate for the long run for GMI, an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes. […]
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes – Wednesday, September 5
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to inch up in August, reaching an annualized 5.0% — fractionally higher vs. the estimate in the previous month. The projection reflects the annualized return over the estimated “risk-free” rate for the long run for GMI, an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes. […]
