Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Toll Brothers: Strong Financials, Buybacks…And Housing Jitters
Toll Brothers (TOL) is more than halfway through reversing a surprising post-earnings gap up a week and a half ago. The 13.8% post-earnings gain surprised me because the message from TOL was little different than its messages in the past two earnings reports that have coincided with an extended sell-off in the stock. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Toll […]
Dow Secondary High Imminent
Previous analysis is updated – the price as traded as outlined and rising to levels where a secondary is likely to form. However, there is a change to the longer term outlook in that I now favor a more substantial correction to take place before the overall bull market resumes. Daily Chart Pattern This […]
What Will The Markets Do For An Encore?
VIX tested Long-term resistance at 14.17 before closing beneath Short-term support/resistance at 12.99. The probe above critical support/resistance may have triggered a probable buy signal in the VIX. The Cycles Model shows a likely surge strength for the VIX through mid-October. (Bloomberg) U.S. stocks have been on a tear over the past week. So why […]
Yes, The Trump Recovery Really Can Keep Going
President Trump’s opponents may not like his philandering past and midnight tweets but on the economy, only cynics can argue with the results. The economy accomplished 4.2 percent growth in the second quarter and appears headed for an overall score of 3 percent for the entire year. A tight job market is finally rewarding workers […]
Markets Rally In My Absence; Dow And S&P Opportunity
Before my vacation I had noted three indices to watch undergoing support tests: Semiconductors, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average had all presented buying opportunities. However, I had also thought these rallies would stall out when they got back to resistance – this did not prove to be the case. With the exception of the Semiconductor Index […]
An Exceptionally Strong Summer For Stocks – What’s Next?
This has been an exceptionally strong summer for the U.S. stock market. The S&P is now up 5 months in a row, which makes forward returns very bullish (see study). We can look at this from another angle. The S&P has increased >3% in July and >3% in August. This is rare. It has only […]
Market Quality Goes Positive Again
My core measures of market quality have gone positive again. My measures of market trend and strength are lagging. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, this suggests a somewhat choppy market ahead (although I was completely wrong on the chop keeping us from new highs in the S&P 500 Index — so maybe the consolidation will […]
Investigating Claims Regarding The Bitcoin Hash Rate: Fact Vs. Fantasy
Analysts claim the bitcoin hash rate leads price. Let’s investigate. Price Follows Hash Rate Claim Max and I agree on some things and disagree on others. Place that Hash Rate Tweet into our bucket of disagreements as the following chart clearly demonstrates. Data for the above chart from Blockchain Charts. They have a huge error on the […]
Einhorn’s Greenlight Crashes 25% YTD After 8% Drop In August
Two months ago, in our ongoing chronicle of the pain suffered by David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital, we reported that based on interim monthly numbers, the fund had lost a massive 8% in the month of June, bringing his – and his LPs’ – total loss for the year to 19%. The reason: Einhorn got clobbered […]
Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 3 And 10
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. Forecast Prior Observation Consensus Week of September 3 September 4 PMI Manufacturing Index – August 54.3 54.5 54.5 ISM (Mfg) – August 57.9 58.1 57.6 Construction Spending – July 0.4% -1.1 0.4 […]
