Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Storms A Brewing
Oil closed back above $70 a barrel as storms, both real and politically, started to develop. Already on the rise after U.S. oil supply fell 2.6 million barrels this week that raised even more concerns about the market’s ability to replace plunging Venezuelan oil production and Iranian exports, that reportedly are already falling oil supply. […]
E Markets: Bad Endings
End of August and the mood is sour with the usual set of geopolitical worries dominating – from Trump Trade to ECB rate hikes/QE ending, to Brexit and to EM FX chaos. This is not the way the summer bull rally story is supposed to end.The chance for a sequel into September beguiles but isn’t […]
Time For Intervention
Those of you who have been following markets closely these last few weeks have noticed that in addition to me traveling around a lot, a few of the emerging markets have been experiencing turbulence. The US economy has been performing phantasmagorically, which in turn is causing the Federal Reserve to tighten the screws on the […]
Rupiah Plunges To Asian Financial Crisis Low Amid Emerging Market Liquidation
Despite four rate hikes by the Bank of Indonesia since May, Indonesia’s rupiah slid to a two-decade low, falling to 14,750 per dollar, a level last hit during the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998, and just shy of an all-time low, spurring yet another intervention from the central bank as the contagion from the collapse […]
CF Industries Shares Grew 75% Last Year. And Now?
This week I’m seeking a high-yield and growing stock from the basic materials sector. That materials sector includes thirteen industries all related to mining, making and delivering essential commodities. The industries are: agricultural inputs; aluminum; building materials; chemicals; coal; copper; industrial metals and minerals; paper; silver; specialty chemicals; steel. Today I’m reviewing a large-cap agricultural […]
USDCAD Daily Analysis – Friday, August 31
USDCAD is facing the resistance of the falling trend line on the 4-hour chart. As long as the trend line resistance holds, the bounce from 1.2887 could be treated as consolidation of the downtrend from 1.3174 and another fall towards 1.2800 is still possible after the consolidation. On the upside, a clear break above the […]
Month-End Adjustments And Tentative Stabilization In Emerging Markets Ease Demand For Dollars But Not Yen
The dramatic price action seen yesterday among several emerging market currencies is eased today, but here at month-end, demand for risk-assets is tentative at best. The macro backdrop, including the increase in US core inflation, expectations for continued hikes by the Federal Reserve, and unambiguous signals that trade tensions will increase in the coming weeks dampens […]
The Recovery In Agricultural Futures, Post-Tariff Imposition
Soybean harvesting begins soon, with the new market year (9/1-), and it was thought by some observers that as China would have to eventually access American soybeans, so prices would recover. That event has not occurred. Source: http://www.barchart.com/futures. American soybeans continue to sell at a substantial discount, as shown here: Source: Farmfutures. Nor have hog prices recovered. Source: http://www.barchart.com/futures. While […]
Can Tesla Hold $300? And Some Other Random Thoughts
Tesla’ stock held $300 yesterday but has been in a sharp downtrend since doubt surfaced about going private. Go Profitable Or Go Private At some point, fundamentals will drive the shares again. Going profitable is much more valuable to shareholders than going private. So while going private could fetch a measly $420, we still think […]
EUR/USD Trades In A Downtrend Channel As August Draws To An End
The EUR/USD is attempting to recover on some ECB hawkishness. Concerns about US tariffs, EM, and Italy weigh. The technical graph shows the pair is trading in a downtrend channel. The EUR/USD is trading just below 1.1700, marginally higher on the day. ECB member Ewald Nowotny said that Italy’s issues would not stop his institution from raising […]
