Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Why Is Productivity Dead In The Water?
The only possible output of this system is extortion as a way of life. As the accompanying chart shows, productivity in the U.S. has been declining since the early 2000s. This trend mystifies economists, as the tremendous investments in software, robotics, networks and mobile computing would be expected to boost productivity, as these tools enable every […]
EA Slides After ‘Battlefield V’ Delay, Guidance Cut
Shares of “big three” game publisher Electronic Arts (EA) were sliding after the video game giant cut its net bookings guidance for fiscal 2019, driven by the delay of the launch date for its upcoming World War 2 shooter “Battlefield V.” WHAT’S NEW: EA announced this morning that it moved the launch date for “Battlefield […]
Q2 GDP Growth Comes In At 4.2%
Q2 GDP Growth – Revised Higher Q2 GDP Growth – Even though Q2 is long gone, we need to review the Q2 GDP revision because the data is now much more accurate. If you only look at the advanced reports, you’ll be missing out on what actually happened. I expected GDP growth to be revised […]
NZD/JPY Collapses As NZ Business Confidence Hits Lowest Level In A Decade
What is a trend? There are countless ways to answer that question, but I’ve always been partial to perhaps the simplest definition: an uptrend is when an asset moves from the lower left to the upper right corner of the chart, and a downtrend is when it moves from the upper left to the lower […]
August 2018 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Now Best Since 1969
The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Nasdaq/Econoday) were 210 K to 215 K (consensus 214,000), and the Department of Labor reported 213,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 213,750 (reported last […]
Let’s Stop With The Lack Of Participation Argument…
There’s not a day that goes by when I don’t hear someone talking about how this market is being led, or held up, by only a handful of stocks. Normally I wouldn’t care, but the inference is usually followed by some sort of doomsday prediction. We all know that bear markets are a natural part […]
The Dollar, Commodities & Inflation
We appear to be at a turning point not only for the dollar, but for all commodity markets, including precious metals, as well. The dollar has yet to reflect properly the enormous monetary expansion of recent years, and commodities will be corralled into supplying China’s Asian reformation. Taken together, the effect of a falling dollar […]
The Big Four Economic Indicators: Real Personal Income In July – Thursday, August 30
Note: This commentary has been updated to include this morning’s release of the July data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Receipts. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they […]
Argentina Peso Plunges To Record Low After Asking IMF For $50 Billion
The interest rate in Argentina jumped to 60% and the Peso to a Record Low after the country called on the IMF for funds. Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri asked the IMF to speed up $50 billion bailout, spooking investors. The Peso Fell to a Record Low. Argentina hiked its interest rate to 45% earlier this month […]
Why Political Extremism Will Get Worse
Is it just me or does it seem like our politics are becoming increasingly polarized? The rise of the Tea Party, the Alt-Right, Donald Trump, Antifa, Bernie Sanders and the Social Democrats are all extremist responses to what seems like a world that has left many people behind. There are several reasons for this and I […]
