Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Message For Bond Investors: Don’t Fight Financial Repression
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released two supplemental reports this month—the first reveals budget scenarios it “did not have enough time” to include in June’s 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, and the second shows what needs to happen for policy makers to reach certain government debt targets. I plan to post a few charts summarizing the new reports, but because I’m sounding […]
US Stocks Are Outperforming Everything – By A Wide Margin
The US equity market has had a volatile year, but the higher risk has paid off… big time. In absolute and relative terms the numbers speak volumes. And the outperformance isn’t limited to recent history. Over a five-year trailing period, for example, the stock market in the US has left the rest of major asset […]
As Good As It Gets
“Only those that risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.” – T.S. Eliot I was reminded of that quote recently as I was reading a great piece by Tim Duy: “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell took to the podium at the annual Jackson Hole monetary conference, delivering a message of support for the central […]
Stocks Keep Melting Up, Topping Pattern?
The U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.2% and 1.0% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected economic data releases. The S&P 500 index has reached yet another new record high at the level of 2,916.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained just 0.2% and the technology Nasdaq Composite gained 1.0% yesterday. The nearest important level of […]
House Prices Continue To Rise, Exacerbating Unaffordability
Now that we have both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price reports for June, let’s take a look at how they fit in to the overall market, and in particular on housing affordability. To begin with, let me repeat the general formula for the housing market: interest rates lead sales sales lead prices prices […]
Sensex Ends Volatile Day Flat; Bank Stocks Top Losers
After opening the day in the red, share markets in India witnessed negative trading activity throughout the day and ended the day in the red. Sectoral indices ended the day mixed, with stocks in the banking sector and stocks in the auto sector leading the losses. At the closing bell, the BSE Sensex stood lower by 33 points and the NSE Nifty closed down […]
When The S&P 500 And VIX Share Trading Trajectory?
Remember the daily record advances in the S&P 500 back in January of this year. Remember the VIX rising alongside such advances as the RSI hit record levels during this time period. Investors enjoy or appreciate when the S&P 500 breaks out and to the upside with strength and breadth, as it did back then and […]
E Markets: Yellow Lights
There are plenty of reasons to pause in the bull run up in US equities today, but only if you think that a yellow light means stop rather than caution. The usual signals of trouble – like safe-havens gaining are in play – like CHF and JPY in FX gaining, with core bonds bid, with […]
Central Banks Enrich A Select Few At The Expense Of Many
The message unanimously churned out by politicians, central bankers, and ‘mainstream’ economists is that central banks are there for the ‘greater good’. They provide the economy with sufficient money and credit, and they fight inflation, thereby supporting output and employment growth. What is more, central banks, are supposedly in a position to effectively fend off […]
Lira Plummets After Turkish Central Bank Deputy Governor Quits
It was already an ugly day for the Turkish Lira, which earlier in the day accelerated its drop for the 4th consecutive session, sending the USDTRY to the highest level since August 14 when the currency crashed over the weekend to the lowest level on record. Today’s drop was initially precipitated after Erdogan said on […]
