Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Bear Channel Targets A Break Below 1.3000 Figure
USD/CAD bull trend is on hold since June 27 as the pair is in pullback mode. USD/CAD is trading below its main simple moving averages and below 1.3020. Bears are at work trying to form a bear channel. Bear targets are 1.3000 and 1.2959 August 7 swing low. A bull breakout above 1.3070 would invalidate the […]
As The Oil Market Turns
Oil is being driven by more plotlines than an afternoon soap opera. With upcoming sanctions on Iran and the Fed on a pace of gradual interest rate increases and strikes in the North Sea and a big drop in the U.S. oil rig count, which fell by 9 rigs, the biggest drop since May of […]
E Will The Next Economic Crisis Be Inflationary Or Deflationary?
“For the past three and a half decades, the principal shocks have not been inflationary, like the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, but rather deflationary, like the US savings and loan crisis in the 1980s and 1990s, the 1997 Asian crisis, the 2000 dot-com busts, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the 2007 subprime […]
Is The VIX Warning Us Of Another Calamity To Come
August is typically a lesser performing month for the S&P 500, only to be outdone by September. September is historically the worst performing month of the year for the stock market. August is also, historically the most volatile month of the year with September following suit to a lesser degree. For the aforementioned reasons, the […]
US Dollar Will Retain Top Spot Despite Deficits, Trade Wars
The US Dollar retains the global currency crown it has worn unchallenged since the end of World War 2. That crown has only been burnished this year by rising interest rates and an economy that seems to have ditched the financial-crisis blues more convincingly than any other. However, there are reasons to be worried even about King […]
July 2018 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Slows
The economy’s rate of growth slowed based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average – but economic growth remained above the historical trend rate of growth. Analyst Opinion of the CFNAI This Month The single month index which is not used for economic forecasting which unfortunately is what the […]
E The Good, The Bad And The Pecker
Which do we follow? The news that says the Prez is about to be impeached (with help from a guy named Pecker, I kid you not), housing took a dump and the hackers are back? Or the breakout to new highs in the S&P 500, the Russell and the Snazzdaq? Is the news of the […]
Making Sense Of Private Credit Funds
A new study takes what is called a “first look” at the aggregate performance of private credit funds. Using data going back to 2004, the authors (two of whom are affiliated with Adams Street Partners) determine that private credit funds “have performed about as well, or better than, leveraged-loan, high-yield, and [business development company] indices.” Such funds […]
Should You Ignore John C. Bogle?
Listen, I get it. When markets are rising everyone wants to be bullish. Why not? As Bob Farrell’s Rule #10 states: “Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.” It is also safer to be “always bullish.” No one remembers the guy that called the previous bull market peak as human psychology is designed to “mask pain.” If it wasn’t, women […]
Ethane To Ethylene: The Essence Of Westlake Chemicals
This week I’m seeking a high-yield and growing stock from the basic materials sector. That materials sector includes thirteen industries all related to mining, making and delivering essential commodities. The industries are: agricultural inputs; aluminum; building materials; chemicals; coal; copper; industrial metals and minerals; paper; silver; specialty chemicals; steel. Today I’m reviewing a small-cap chemicals […]
