Author Archive: Jeremy Parkinson
Trade Trumps US Jobs And Rising Stress In Spain And Italy Is More Important Than The PMI
The first week of a new month features the US jobs data. It is the most important economic report of a new month. It sets the broad tone for much of the economic data over the next several weeks, including consumption, industrial production, and construction spending. However, there are two reasons why it may not pack […]
CoT, Positions For This Week
Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 28, 2018. 10-year note: Currently net short 529.8k, down 170.7k. July’s core PCE (personal consumption expenditures) – the Fed’s favorite measure of consumer inflation – was reported Thursday. Inflation perked up 1.98 percent year-over-year, up from 1.92 percent in June. The Fed has a two-percent inflation target. July’s was […]
E Canadian Inflation Spiked Higher In July, But Core Inflation Is Right On The Bank Of Canada’s Target
Canadian consumer prices rose 0.5% in July, compared to much smaller CPI increases in the previous two months. The steep increase in July pushed the twelve-month increase up to 3% compared to a 2.5% gain as of June. While the July price increase was huge, nonetheless there are no signs that inflation in Canada is […]
Probability Of Ruin In Pictures
William Bengen calculated sustainable withdrawal rates (SWR) using historical S&P 500 market returns since 1928 leading to the “4% Rule.”[1] More recently, Robert Shiller published stock market returns data back to 1871 using the S&P Composite Index[2]. In this post, I’ll explore the “probability of ruin” using the more extensive Shiller data. Probability of ruin is […]
September 2018 Dividend Champions List
As part of my monitoring process, I took upon myself to update the list of Dividend Champions every month. I have found it very helpful to update the list, in an effort to monitor more closely the list of dividend champions. This is the third update of the dividend champions list I have done so […]
AUD/JPY Forecast: September 2018
The Australian dollar has been rather noisy over the last couple of months, especially against the Japanese yen. However, this has set up a nice trading range that we have been working with for some time, and I believe this will continue to be the way. However, if it is not we then have clear […]
Trump Warns Canada “Fair Deal Or Out”: Mish’s Fair Deal Proposal
Trump wants a “fair deal”. I propose both sides end all tariffs and subsidies. Fair Deal or Out Trump Says ‘Canada Will Be Out’ Without ‘Fair Deal’ on Nafta Mr. Trump’s warning on Saturday comes a day after U.S. and Canadian negotiators failed to reach an agreement on Friday, a deadline he set, to revamp […]
Mark Your Calendar, The ‘Era Of Helicopter Money’ In Japan Has A Date
On Friday, the Bank of Japan tweaked their bond buying program for September. Although they upped the purchase sizes across maturities, they reduced the frequency of purchase operations from five to six. Going into July, the market was conditioned to view BoJ meetings as snoozers given that Japan is still miles away when it comes […]
Toll Brothers: Strong Financials, Buybacks…And Housing Jitters
Toll Brothers (TOL) is more than halfway through reversing a surprising post-earnings gap up a week and a half ago. The 13.8% post-earnings gain surprised me because the message from TOL was little different than its messages in the past two earnings reports that have coincided with an extended sell-off in the stock. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Toll […]
Dow Secondary High Imminent
Previous analysis is updated – the price as traded as outlined and rising to levels where a secondary is likely to form. However, there is a change to the longer term outlook in that I now favor a more substantial correction to take place before the overall bull market resumes. Daily Chart Pattern This […]
